The first quarter of 2008 presented a number
of challenges to the real estate market.
A weakening national economy, along with the continuing difficulties in the financial and mortgage markets, have resulted in uneven performance in the real estate market.
We do not need to repeat the types of headlines that have been appearing in the various media that we all read, listen to and watch on the nightly news. Suffice it to say, there have certainly been enough stories covering mortgage problems, foreclosures, declines in home prices, home sales, and so forth. While these have mostly covered national issues, Connecticut is not immune to the effects.
The ‘doom-sayers’ are always there and will always make predictions about the coming collapse of the market and other insurmountable catastrophes, but when rational thought prevails, we recognize that we are simply in a weak part of a traditional business cycle. Yes, these still happen, and this cycle will run its course. In the meantime, one thing is certain: people will continue to move and purchase homes.
Our state hasn’t been a speculative marketplace and this stands in stark contrast to some other areas of the nation. We also are not overbuilt with large standing inventories of new homes on the market, another characteristic of other locations nationally. Connecticut is also very fortunate to have an economy that has been performing relatively well.
The following is a summary overview of the housing market in the first quarter of 2008. For complete details, please review the individual community data that appears in this report.
Single-family and condominium sales have decreased year over year (about 32%). This was anticipated based on the lower levels of deposits in the last months (especially November and December of 2007). We started 2008 with fewer sales in process, so this slow start is reflected in the first quarter sales statistics. That trend began to shift in March.
Looking at the rate of deposit activity in March and very early April shows an increase in the rate of deposits. As we write this report, there are about 4,600 pending single-family sales and 1,600 pending condo sales. While there may well be some that don’t close, the numbers are pretty good. There is still a market out there!
We have also been hearing (on the national news again) that there is almost a 10-month supply of inventory nationally. When we run this same number for the state of Connecticut, on an overall basis, it comes out to about a 5-month supply of inventory on the market (at this time). Clearly, even if all of the pending sales do not close, Connecticut is well outperforming the national figure. There has not been significant inventory increases here, which is certainly good news.
Median sales prices do show some modest declines, but do not show precipitous drops and we do not believe that this will be the case here. There are areas of the nation (several states in the West, Southwest and Southeast) that do show significant year over year price declines. It is important to keep this difference and distinction in mind.
|
Residential real estate, especially owner-occupied real estate, is not really a short- term investment. Most people purchasing a home or a condo are really making that choice as a place to live. Homeowners are one type of purchaser while investors are a different category with different motivations entirely.
Here’s some price data for a number of randomly selected communities from around our state:

Note: This does not mean that every home in each of these communities went up by the same amount: Some would be more, some less.
But, clearly, the numbers show reality quite well: Owning a home has been a good investment, over time.

The economic news is mixed now. Frankly, quite a bit of it has been bad. But one thing is certain, this is not the first weak economic cycle and it will run its course. How long will it take to do so? No one knows, despite plenty of commentators with plenty of opinions on the topic. Most economic downturns last from 6 to about 14 months.
Where is the good news? It really depends on which way we elect to look at the world. We cannot over emphasize how important mind set really is. This is why the following paradigm is so important: Bad news generates more bad news and good news generates more good news. This is one of the most-true ‘truisms’ around.
We know plenty of home sellers who have successfully sold homes this year. This will continue throughout 2008. There have been (and will still be) properties that attract multiple offers and will sell quickly.
There will also be price ranges that sell better than others, or marketing times that are longer or shorter depending on where the property is located. This is normal for any type of market.
Mortgage interest rates remain low by historic standards and have been going lower this year. This is always good news for the real estate market. And yes, you can still get a mortgage. (Sub-prime mortgages are pretty much gone and that is not a bad thing.)
Moving forward, there will be some challenges in the coming months, but none that are insurmountable
|